How big is your rally?

By -
I’ve always been terrible at counting crowds. I have some innate senses that are very finely honed, like my extremely keen sense of direction. But estimating crowds? I’ve always been terrible at it and I don’t even try anymore. If someone asks me how many people were at my shul on a given Shabbat, I just shrug. I haven’t the faintest clue.

Well, it’s nice to know I’m not alone. There’s an article in the NY Times today that debunks those massive crowd estimates for concerts in Central Park over the last few decades (HT:DB). James Taylor drew 250,000 people in 1979 in the Sheep Meadow? Elton John attracted 300,000 fans on the Great Lawn in 1980? In 1981, Simon & Garfunkel banished any sound of silence with 400,000 people? A whopping 750,000 devotees of Garth Brooks packed the North Meadow in 1997?

All fantasy, it turns out. On July 12, Bon Jovi played a free concert on the Great Lawn. And this time, the lawn was cordoned off, and though the concert was free, they actually individually counted the people who came in. The final tally, when the Great Lawn was filled to capacity? A paltry 48,538. Which means that Elton John’s 300,000 in the same space? Impossible.

It seems that the crowd counting till now has been more guesswork than anything else. And evidently, the “officials” who made those older estimates are no better at guesstimating crowds than I am.

All of this makes me wonder about the crowd estimates of the massive pro-Israel rally that I (and half the people I knew) attended in Washington, DC on April 15, 2002.

It looked like a huge crowd to me, but I couldn't tell from the middle how big it was. Some papers reported "tens of thousands", a couple reported "over 100,000" and the rally organizers reported over 250,000. On the bus back to NY, one guy was listening to the radio and was getting almost apoplectic over what he felt were underreported numbers, yelling "we've been robbed!"

Turns out, nobody really has any idea how many people came, though I suspect it’s closer to the “tens of thousands” reported by the press than the 250,000 reported by the rally organizers.

The lesson? There isn’t really one, I guess, except not to trust “official” crowd estimates.
----------------------------------------
Related posts:

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Boycott the Chidon HaTanach?

By -
Bat-El Levi, 15, from Be'er Sheva is one of the 4 Israeli finalists in the Chidon HaTanach, the international Bible competition for Jewish teens sponsored by Israel. She is also a Messianic Jew who believes in Jesus. From The Jerusalem Post: The controversy surrounding the participation of 16-year-old Bat-El Levi, from Beersheba, began last week as a result of a campaign led by the haredi anti-missionary organization Yad Le'Achim. Yad Le'Achim discovered that Levi belonged to a messianic Jewish congregation. The organization immediately contacted rabbis and other spiritual leaders. Rabbi Shlomo Aviner, a leading religious Zionist halachic authority, called to boycott the quiz if the messianic Jew did not forfeit her participation. His call was joined by other rabbis aligned with religious Zionism, including Safed Chief Rabbi Shmuel Eliahu. Sources close to the Levi family, who did not deny their ties with a messianic Jewish congregation, said there had been attempt
Read more

What kind of skeptic are you?

By -
A comment on my last post got me thinking: There are 2 types of skeptics hanging out in this zone of the blogosphere. Skeptic type #1: I only believe what is proven by empirical evidence. There is no logical reason to believe in god or any divine source to Judaism, especially since one can trace the entirely social development of superstitious belief in gods or god in various cultures. Plus, in light of modern science, archeology, and historical research, the divine revelation and many other events related in the Torah could not have happened. The definition of a rational human being is one who bases belief on observation. I am such a rational being. It would make no sense for me to believe in something intangible like god. That is outside the realm of empiricism and therefore does not exist. The entire basis of Judaism is riddled with inaccuracies and ancient misconceptions. The Torah is clearly not divine. Therefore, the entire basis of the religion is a myth. Skeptic ty
Read more

Tzniyus Fetish

By -
Apparently, Rabbi Yair Hoffman has too much time on his hands. In an article in the 5 Towns Jewish Times , he calls attention to a serious problem, that of women dressed inappropriately when dropping off their sons at Yeshiva, because they are heading for the gym and are dressed for exercising. Among other things, he writes: "What further complicates the issue is that many women are entirely unaware of the problem. They do not know that it is the nature of a pencil skirt worn with leggings to rise above the knee." The problem, actually, is that Rabbi Yair Hoffman spends enough time thinking about this so that he knows what a pencil skirt is (I don't) and is familiar with the details of leggings "a nylon-lycra blend" and that pencil skirts are apparently made of spandex. He also apparently thinks deeply about the necessity of "a skirt that entirely conceals the shape and form of the thigh" When do we start telling the truth, that rab
Read more